Ohio State Football 2026: The Preseason #1 Question Nobody's Asking
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Ohio State enters 2026 as preseason #1. But one statistical anomaly from last season suggests the real threat isn't Michigan — it's the schedule makers.
AP Preseason poll expected late Aug; 2025 CFP semifinalist; 9 returning starters offense.
Ohio State is the consensus preseason favorite for 2026 with 9 offensive starters returning and a Heisman-contender QB. But the Buckeyes face the toughest non-conference slate in the Big Ten — and history shows that matters more than the Michigan game.
The hype is real: Ohio State returns its QB (two-year starter), top three receivers, and an offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the Big Ten. The defense adds a 5-star transfer portal haul. Every metric — SP+, FPI, returning production — points to the Buckeyes as the team to beat. The AP Preseason Poll (due late August) will almost certainly slot them #1.
The Twist: It's Not Michigan That Keeps Coaches Awake
The "Game" gets the headlines, but the data says otherwise. Since 2010, Big Ten champions with a top-5 non-conference SOS went 8-1 in CFP berths; those with bottom-half SOS went 1-7. Ohio State's 2026 non-conference: @Texas (Week 2), vs. Notre Dame (Week 3), vs. UCF (Week 4). That's three playoff-caliber opponents before October. One loss there, and the Michigan game becomes irrelevant for the CFP.
What This Means for the Buckeyes' Title Chase
If OSU navigates the gauntlet 3-0, they're a lock for the Big Ten Championship Game with a CFP bye on the line. If they drop one, the margin for error vanishes — and the Michigan game becomes a must-win elimination game. The schedule, not the rivalry, writes the script. For fans: the Texas game in Week 2 is the real season opener.
